Employment Spiral

On a national front the unemployment numbers are rising, whilst globally the number of people inhabiting the world has risen to 8 billion.

The increase in the overall population arrives at a time that the birth rate is dropping. The key factor is our longevity. The average lifespan globally is now 71 years, which is incredible.

So, we are ageing and needing more support as there are fewer people to fund it. There is a simultaneous reduction in the number of jobs for ‘working class’ people. In the UK there are 1.3 million job seekers, but it is estimated that there might be 9 million individuals aged between 16 and 64 not in employment. Some are ill, some are carers, and some have withdrawn themselves from the market post Covid and because of disillusionment with employers.

These are just a few circles that need to be squared in an incredibly complex world.

Who is going to generate wealth to look after the elderly? Can we help older people remain fit and well? Should we work longer? Can pensions provide adequately? Will there be mass migration to the rich west which might solve one or two problems but create more? Will some people never work, as better paid, higher skilled jobs make some comfortable to the exclusion of many more?

How will we feed and water the ever-increasing demographic?

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Employment in the future

Where will there be jobs in the future? Automated Intelligence (AI) will vacuum up any jobs with repetition. The Chief Economist at the Bank of England has predicted this will be 50% of all jobs. I think this is wrong; it is higher. For example, a teacher in her lifetime may mark 50000 papers but a computer will be able to do the same in a matter of hours and with consistency. Marking papers feels as if it must be done by a person but no, it is seen as a very appropriate task for a computer.

Mankind will be left with the novel, the one-offs or only occasional. Good news for scientists, engineers, technologists, entertainers but what about the average person?

Does it matter if society is successful in the terms of feeding the people, keeping them safe, extending life spans and providing enough distractions?

Do people need a sense of purpose? Will the fewer people still working resent the days of leisure “enjoyed” by the less capable?

Will we need the same amount of schools and teachers, given a few will be selected for intensive education whilst the majority will only need basic literacy and numeracy.

Although some sectors may burgeon;

• Care for the increasing elderly population
• Travel
• Hospitality
• Charities
• Self-employment but to do what?

Certain skills and traits will be crucial;

• Leadership for the few whom have to deliver everything
• Problem solving
• Improvement
• Compassion
• Flexibility

What can we do to mitigate the effects?

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The Impact of Artificial Intelligence

We will be paying a lot of attention to the future of work, and not just to the effects of AI, robotics and biotech. However, interviewed on the BBC recently, Victor Riparbelli, CEO and Co-founder of Synthesia said, “AI won’t replace your job. A person using AI will”.

An accurate statement which clarifies the grammatical nuances and somehow seems to attempt reassurance. It doesn’t say the current operator will remain employed or that they will be re-trained. It absolutely doesn’t say it is a one-for-one substitution; that is far from the case or else why do it?

From a short snippet of an interview it isn’t possible to guess Mr Riparbelli’s intention, but it does, in isolation, appear to gloss over the ramifications on jobs of new technology.

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